"One of the dilemmas facing those who spoke at the National Council of La Raza this week was how to pronounce the Hispanic activist group’s name. The first syllable of the word raza (race, or people) requires a tricky, un-English tongue movement. Some of the anglophone speakers who tried it sounded as though they were about to choke. John McCain made no attempt at all, pronouncing the “R” like the last letter of “Budweiser”. Barack Obama, by contrast, breezed through the word as if he had grown up eating sopaipillas. Then, to show off, he did it again.

Although less numerous than black voters, Latino voters may tip this year’s presidential election. They make up 12% of the electorate in Colorado and Nevada, 14% in Florida and 37% in New Mexico (see map). In 2004 George Bush won all four of those states by five percentage points or less, and all four of them are regarded as key battlefields this time around. Florida, as the fourth-biggest state in the union and electorally one of the closest, is a place where the large Hispanic vote could well prove decisive: Jeb Bush, the president’s brother and the governor of Florida at the time of the 2000 and 2004 elections, has a Hispanic wife and helped boost the Republican’s share of the Latino vote there. But he is now gone.

Across the border states and beyond, Spanish-language radio stations are pushing listeners to become citizens and register to vote, apparently to some effect. Last week the Department of Homeland Security revealed that 122,258 Mexicans became citizens in 2007—up 59% from 2005.

Another difference between Hispanic and black voters (who the candidates also addressed this week, at a meeting of the National Association for the Advancement of Coloured People) is that neither party can depend on them. George Bush keenly courted Latinos, in part by appealing to their socially conservative instincts. He won at least 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004. “I know how powerful this community is,” said Mr Obama on July 13th. “And, by the way, so does John McCain.”

Until recently it seemed as though the latter might be able to match or even exceed Mr Bush’s haul. A series of unpatriotic, much-televised statements by Mr Obama’s pastor had greatly offended a group that came to America willingly. Hillary Clinton had won the great majority of Hispanic votes in the Democratic primaries. Mr McCain represents a heavily Hispanic state and has often called for America’s roughly 12m illegal immigrants to be treated sensibly and humanely.

Unfortunately, though, Mr McCain is a Republican. Hispanics share the general current contempt for Mr Bush’s party, and have a few grievances of their own. It was, after all, Republicans who wrecked a bill last year that would have allowed most illegal immigrants to become citizens. It was Republicans who ran television ads in 2006 comparing labourers who stole across the Mexican border to terrorists. As the other candidates tacked to the right during the primaries, the Arizona senator at first hesitated and then seemed to follow. In January he was asked whether he still supported the immigration bill he had helped craft. No, he said.

McCain’s mountain to climb
These days pollsters put Mr Obama 30 points ahead of Mr McCain among Hispanic voters. Largely because of them, he has opened a small lead in Colorado and New Mexico (plus a huge one in solidly Democratic California). Latinos have even helped Mr Obama close to within ten points in the Republican redoubt of Texas. Mr McCain had the chance to reverse the slide this week—the third time in just over a fortnight that he had addressed a big Hispanic organisation. He not only failed to do so, but at times seemed to concede the Latino vote. “I know many of you are Democrats, regrettably,” he told 2,000 listeners in San Diego.

Whereas Mr Obama promised quick action on immigration reform, the Arizona senator simply asked the audience to trust that he would get around to it once the border has been secured, which everyone knows will take a long time if it ever happens at all. He expressed sympathy for illegal immigrants in the vaguest terms (“We cannot forget the humanity God commands of us”). He answered an anguished question about workplace immigration raids by explaining, rather loftily, that this was a symptom of a broader problem rather than a problem in itself.

The crowd, which had cheered Mr Obama, listened politely. That may not worry the Republican candidate. He was not just addressing Latinos—and nor was he simply trimming to the nativists who lurked outside with signs condemning “Juan McAmnesty”. The average white American grudgingly concedes that it is neither possible nor wise to deport 12m people. But he is angry with illegal immigrants for flouting the law, and wants the border fixed. So do many Latinos, particularly those (like Florida’s Cubans) whose right to live in America has never been questioned.

In his pursuit of Hispanic voters, Mr Obama is straying to the left of mainstream opinion. His speech on July 13th hinted at a distaste for workplace raids and did not mention the many illegal immigrants who have committed crimes. During the primary race he expressed support for a plan by Eliot Spitzer, then the governor of New York, to allow illegals to apply for driving licences. This is the sort of thing that rattles independent voters and fires up the Republican base.

Yet Mr Obama’s strength among Hispanic voters does not just have to do with his position on immigration. Nor does Mr McCain’s weakness have to do with his stance on the subject. Much of the talk at the National Council of La Raza was about issues like foreclosure, school dropout rates and health insurance. Downstairs, in the convention hall, one of the busiest stalls offered advice on diabetes. Latinos worry more than most about these things, but they are not the only people who worry about them. Mr McCain’s real problem is that he has so far failed to convince Americans, Hispanic or otherwise, that he can come up with solutions to their rather ordinary problems." (The Economist, July 19, 2008)